If you live in Maryland, it probably feels like the housing math broke sometime around 2020.

Home prices surged. Mortgage rates jumped. Wages didn’t keep pace. And for many buyers—especially first-time buyers—the starter-home rung of the ladder moved farther and farther away. That’s been especially true in places like Montgomery County, Prince George’s County, Howard County, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, and the DC-adjacent suburbs where demand rarely cools for long.

Now, heading into 2026, two major federal housing policy shifts are colliding:

1. A push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy a large volume of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in an effort to bring mortgage rates down

2. A proposed stop or restriction on large corporate (institutional) investors buying single-family homes, framed as a move to improve affordability

So what does this actually mean for Maryland homeowners, buyers, and sellers?

Let’s break it down—using real data and a realistic lens.

First: what mortgage-backed securities are (and why they matter to you)

A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is essentially a bond made up of many individual home loans bundled together. Homeowners make monthly mortgage payments, and those payments flow through to investors who buy the bond.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a central role here. They buy qualifying mortgages from lenders, package them into mortgage-backed securities, and guarantee those securities against default. Because of that guarantee, these bonds are considered relatively safe and are widely held by investors.

Why MBS affects mortgage rates

Mortgage rates are closely tied to how attractive these mortgage bonds are to investors. When demand for MBS increases, yields typically fall—and lower yields often translate into lower mortgage rates for consumers.

That’s why large-scale MBS purchases matter. When a major buyer enters the market and buys a lot of mortgage bonds, it can put downward pressure on mortgage rates, even if the effect is modest.

What’s going on with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying MBS?

In recent policy discussions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been directed to purchase roughly $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities with the goal of nudging mortgage rates lower.

Important context:
Fannie and Freddie are not the Federal Reserve, and this is not the same as the massive bond-buying programs seen during the pandemic. Many analysts believe the scale is relatively small compared to the overall mortgage market, meaning the impact on rates may be limited.

That said, in a state like Maryland, even small rate changes can matter.

• Slightly lower rates can bring buyers off the sidelines

• More buyers competing for limited inventory can keep prices firm—or even push them higher

This is the core tension policymakers face: lower rates help monthly payments, but they can also increase demand unless housing supply grows at the same time.

The other big headline: stopping corporate investors

Alongside the MBS push is a proposed effort to limit large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, including guidance that would restrict government-backed financing from supporting those purchases.

The goal is straightforward: reduce competition for everyday buyers and keep more homes available for owner-occupants.

But here’s the reality check.

How big are corporate investors, really?

Large institutional investors—typically defined as companies buying 10 or more homes per year—are more visible than they are dominant.

Nationally:

• Large institutional investors generally account for mid-single-digit percentages of home purchases

• Their market share peaked around 2021 and has declined since

• They own only a small share of the overall single-family housing stock

That said, all investors combined (including small landlords, LLCs, and individual investors) make up a much larger portion of buyers. In recent years, investors overall have purchased roughly 18–27% of homes, depending on the quarter.

So when buyers say “investors are everywhere,” they’re usually feeling pressure from all investor types, not just Wall Street-backed firms.

Maryland home sales: the last five years

To understand what might happen next, it helps to look at recent activity.

Maryland residential home sales by year:

• 2020: 83,350 sales

• 2021: 114,504 sales

• 2022: 95,121 sales

• 2023: 67,415 sales

• 2024: 68,507 sales

Sales volume dropped sharply after 2021, largely due to rising mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Many homeowners stayed put, locked into low rates, keeping inventory tight across much of the state.

How many Maryland homes were bought by big corporate investors?

There’s no single public dataset that cleanly breaks out institutional investor purchases by year for Maryland alone. That data typically lives in paid databases.

However, using national benchmarks as a guide:

• Institutional investors generally accounted for roughly 6–9% of purchases during peak years

• Even at the height of investor activity, they were not the majority of buyers

In Maryland, where prices and rents vary significantly by county, institutional investors likely concentrated in specific submarkets and property types—homes that rent easily, price bands attractive to build-to-rent strategies, and neighborhoods with predictable returns.

What this could mean for Maryland real estate in 2026

1. Lower rates could reignite competition

If MBS purchases succeed in pushing mortgage rates down even modestly, Maryland could see:

• More buyers re-enter the market

• Increased competition in entry-level and mid-price segments

• Faster movement in townhomes and starter single-family homes

Without a meaningful increase in inventory, lower rates alone may not improve affordability as much as buyers hope.

2. Fewer institutional investors could help—at the margins

If restrictions on large corporate buyers are enforced:

• Some homes that would have gone to investor portfolios may stay available to owner-occupants

• Certain “rent-friendly” homes may see less competition

However, because large institutions represent a relatively small slice of the market, price impacts are likely to be incremental, not dramatic.

3. Affordability depends on which force wins

For Maryland in 2026, two realistic scenarios stand out:

Scenario A: Rates ease, prices stay firm
Monthly payments improve slightly, but demand rebounds quickly. Good for sellers and move-up buyers; challenging for first-time buyers.

Scenario B: Rates ease and investor pressure cools somewhat
This is the outcome policymakers are aiming for. Buyers get more breathing room—but only if inventory improves and investor restrictions are meaningful.

What Maryland buyers and sellers should watch

Buyers

• Watch mortgage rates and inventory together—lower rates with tight supply often mean more competition

• Pay attention to loan limits, especially in higher-priced Maryland counties

• Strong terms, clean financing, and smart strategy can matter as much as price

Sellers

• Even small rate drops can expand the buyer pool quickly

• Well-prepared, well-priced homes will stand out in an affordability-constrained market

The bottom line for Maryland

Mortgage-backed security purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are a tool to influence rates—not a silver bullet for affordability. Limiting institutional investors may help in certain neighborhoods and price ranges, but it won’t solve Maryland’s housing challenges on its own.

Ultimately, Maryland affordability still comes down to the same fundamentals:
limited supply, rate sensitivity, and steady demand near jobs, transit, and schools.

Want to talk about what this means for your Maryland plans?

Whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or just trying to make sense of where the market is headed, we’re happy to help you navigate what 2026 could look like—specifically for your neighborhood and your goals.

Reach out to us anytime to start the conversation and get clarity on your next move in Maryland real estate.